Tuesday, February 15, 2005
First one to establish representative democracy wins...
Interesting look at the different approaches to supporting openness and democracy in Belarus by Peter Savodnik in Slate. To egregiously oversimply (but hey, what's a blog for) - the EU is working with the regime on various projects. Downside - this requires approval from a regime pretty much everyone admits has no plans of ever accepting any kind of real reform or accountability. Upside - they get to stay in Belarus. Meanwhile, the U.S. is supporting opposition parties and trying to groom prospective challengers to chief mucky muck Alexander Lukaschenko. Downside - they've been tossed from Belarus, and are now operating out of Ukraine and Lithuania. Upside - hey, this could actually work.
Despite being close by - the Ukraine solution probably won't work for Belarus. As Savodnik notes, former Ukrainian president Kuchma may not have been the biggest fan of true representative democracy, but he cared enough about world opinion not to send in the tanks when it became clear his country wanted his crew out of power. Nobody thinks Lukaschenko shares Kuchma's concern for world opinion. One guy who might care a little, however, is Vladimir Putin. Putin isn't bothered by authoritarianism per se, and while no fan of Lukaschenko personally, he's in no hurry to see him go, since he is anti-Western, and his removal would be seen as a weakening of Russia's influence.
Daniel Drezner is soliciting suggestions as to how to democratize Belarus. A couple of people suggest getting Belarus' neighbors to cut Lukaschenko off completely, which sounds like a pretty good idea to me. Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania all might be willing to go along, but Putin would be the sticky wicket. I'd like to think he could be encouraged to help develop a more responsible voice for the pro-Russian contingent that certainly exists in Belarus, but Putin seems to treat this sort of thing as a zero-sum game, and a democratic Belarus will probably be a less reliable ally than one run by an asshole who's nominally on your side.
It doesn't sound like Belarus is turning orange any time soon. Putin prefers a horrid, reliable ally to a free yet unreliable neighbor. Europe prefers stability and quiet, admittedly ineffective dialogue, and U.S. efforts to groom credible opposition face a leader more then willing to forcibly crush any efforts to remove him from power.
Congratulations, Alexander Lukaschenko - you've passed the global test.
Despite being close by - the Ukraine solution probably won't work for Belarus. As Savodnik notes, former Ukrainian president Kuchma may not have been the biggest fan of true representative democracy, but he cared enough about world opinion not to send in the tanks when it became clear his country wanted his crew out of power. Nobody thinks Lukaschenko shares Kuchma's concern for world opinion. One guy who might care a little, however, is Vladimir Putin. Putin isn't bothered by authoritarianism per se, and while no fan of Lukaschenko personally, he's in no hurry to see him go, since he is anti-Western, and his removal would be seen as a weakening of Russia's influence.
Daniel Drezner is soliciting suggestions as to how to democratize Belarus. A couple of people suggest getting Belarus' neighbors to cut Lukaschenko off completely, which sounds like a pretty good idea to me. Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania all might be willing to go along, but Putin would be the sticky wicket. I'd like to think he could be encouraged to help develop a more responsible voice for the pro-Russian contingent that certainly exists in Belarus, but Putin seems to treat this sort of thing as a zero-sum game, and a democratic Belarus will probably be a less reliable ally than one run by an asshole who's nominally on your side.
It doesn't sound like Belarus is turning orange any time soon. Putin prefers a horrid, reliable ally to a free yet unreliable neighbor. Europe prefers stability and quiet, admittedly ineffective dialogue, and U.S. efforts to groom credible opposition face a leader more then willing to forcibly crush any efforts to remove him from power.
Congratulations, Alexander Lukaschenko - you've passed the global test.
